Okay, here we are...
I've gone through every runner, allocating them marks for each variable I feel is important. I've colour coded the marks to make it easy to see the positives and negatives.
dark peach is +2pts
light peach is +1pt
light blue is -1pt
dark blue is -2pts
An explanation of each variable...
AGE - 9 and 10 is the best age, with 8, 11 and 12 doing next best. Anything older or younger are up against it.
WEIGHT - a big advantage carrying a low weight, so full marks to those carrying 11st or less with gradually decreasing marks for every 4lbs over.
LAST RUN - this is the number of days since the horses last run, between 16 and 49 days is the best timespan.
STAY? - I've used my own opinion here as to whether I think the horse will stay or not.
JUMP? - A horse ideally needs to have shown it can jump in a big field.
EXP? - Experience. This is based on how many years the horse has been chasing and how many chase runs they've had.
CLASS? - This is based on the value of their chase wins, or sometimes a narrow defeat.
FRENCH? - As explained previously in this thread, the French don't race over extreme trips so breed their horses for speed rather than stamina. Several have gone close and even won other long distance chases, but it seems this 4m4f trip under such extreme circumstances proves a step too far. Still, I've only used the +1 and -1 marks for this as it's not one of the stronger stats.
DWNGRD? - I've looked at the last winners of this race and the last 8 have all won this off a mark very close to the highest they have ever been rated. So those runners who contest this race off a mark considerable lower than they once were don't win as they are on the downgrade and you need a horse at or near its peak to win this. The rating for CLOUDY LANE is flawed as his OR has been readjusted after the weights for this race were framed, so I've ignored it.
BL/V? - horses weraing headgear (blinkers and visors, not tongue-ties or cheekpieces) have a terrible record in the Grand National (last 7 years, 0 wins from 37, with 78% (29/37) failing to complete) as their view is impeded which will obviously lead to problems in the jumping department. I've used +2 and -2 here as it's a strong negative.
The first graph is in racecard order, the 2nd one is in rating order...
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others! So there we are - 4 top-rated and 5 narrowly behind. Do with them what you will.
If anyone spots a mistake the PLEASE TELL ME - last year I didn't do this as thoroughly and left out the 33/1 winner by mistake, like the plum I am. Of course, Sods Law means that this year after I've spent several hours on it all my bets will hit the floor by the 6th fence.
read more in the betting forum...
